Gartner Says Worldwide Smartphone Sales Will Grow 3% in 2020

  • Middle East and North Africa, Mature Asia/Pacific and Greater China Will Each Register Over 5% Growth

     

    By ; Nahla Muqalad

    Worldwide sales of smartphones to end users are on track to reach 1.57 billion units in 2020, an increase of 3% year over year, according to Gartner, Inc. In 2019, worldwide smartphone sales declined 2%, the first time since 2008 that the global smartphone market experienced a decline.

     

    “2019 was a challenging year for smartphone vendors, primarily due to oversupply in the high-end sector in mature markets and longer replacement cycles overall,” said Annette Zimmermann, research vice president at Gartner. “However, in 2020, the market is expected to rebound with the introduction of 5G network coverage in more countries and as users who may have delayed their smartphone purchases until 2020 in expectation of price reductions begin buying again.”

     

    Gartner forecasts that sales of 5G mobile phones will total 221 million units in 2020 — which will account for 12% of overall mobile phone sales — and more than double in 2021, to 489 million units. “The commercialization of 5G phones will accelerate in 2020. 5G phones costing under $300 have been announced, so sales growth of 5G phones is expected to exceed that of 4G phones over twelve months,” said Ms. Zimmermann.

     

    From a regional perspective, the Middle East and North Africa, mature Asia/Pacific and Greater China (China, Taiwan and Hong Kong) will exhibit the highest growth rates in 2020, at 5.9%, 5.7% and 5.1%, respectively (see Table 1).

     

    Table 1:

    Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Region, 2019-2021 (Thousands of Units)

    Region

    2019

     

    2020

     

    2021

     

    Eastern Europe

    48,468

    48,532

    49,121

    Emerging Asia/Pacific

    363,643

    376,784

    396,394

    Eurasia

    48,612

    50,915

    52,860

    Greater China

    411,351

    432,328

    426,002

    Japan

    31,866

    32,273

    33,027

    Latin America

    129,830

    125,635

    122,963

    Mature Asia/Pacific

    30,095

    31,802

    31,234

    Middle East and North Africa

    73,872

    78,226

    75,604

    North America

    152,857

    155,350

    158,618

    Sub-Saharan Africa

    90,103

    91,917

    93,169

    Western Europe

    144,141

    147,457

    150,206

    Total

    1,524,838

    1,571,219

    1,589,198

    Source: Gartner (January 2020)

     

    Strong demand for 5G phones in general, together with expectations of Apple’s first 5G iPhone, will bolster demand for smartphones, particularly in Asia/Pacific and Greater China. In terms of smartphone sales, Greater China and emerging Asia/Pacific will maintain their No. 1 and No. 2 positions globally in 2020, with respective sales of 432.3 million and 376.8 million smartphones.

     

    What to Expect at MWC 2020

    “Attention at this year’s MWC will be drawn to 5G devices at either end of the price scale, some of which may be revealed before the event,” said Ms. Zimmermann. “The key focus for vendors will be access to 5G and enhancement of the camera technology within devices.”

     

    Gartner clients can read more on the outlook of smartphone sales in Forecast: Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2017-2023, 4Q19 Update.

     

     



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